Six handwritten deep-dives into the concepts that anchor BetsPlug's ensemble - value betting, expected goals, Elo, Kelly, Poisson, and bankroll management.
Why beating the bookmaker is about price, not prediction
How shot-quality modelling replaced scoreline analysis in modern football
From chess to football - how a 60-year-old algorithm still anchors modern models
Optimal bet sizing, explained without the calculus
The statistical workhorse that turns expected goals into match probabilities
The difference between a model that works and one that pays